A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
