🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.